The Secret Lives of Diaries


2012

Posted in Uncategorized by secretlives on April 29, 2006

Went out to a dinner party tonight.  It was a great evening, but sometime during the conversation we talked about the decline of Western Civilization and the ascendant of China, India and South-East Asia.

This is not the first time that I've had this conversation at dinner parties and other social events.  People seem to be talking about it more, and in particular about a potential war between China/Islam and the West.

2012 seems to be the date that is bandied about the most.  There seems to be a parallel between the German 1938 Olympics and the Chinese Olympics of 2010.  A year after the first olympics, war broke out.  Will war break out two years after the second?  Time will tell.

In any event, it seems that the consensus is that the West, led by America, is in 'managed decline' like Great Britain was after the First World War.  What do you all think?  I'd be interested in knowing whether these intuitions resonate with you.

Giovanni
Age 56

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4 Responses to '2012'

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  1. ziddi said,

    America’s economic might will not be tainted by Asian countries that refuse to play by the rules. As much as people would like to see their decline, they are still the world’s hegemonic powerhouse, and will continue to be so.

    By the way, I don’t think the 1938 Olympics were the “first” 🙂

  2. secretlives said,

    Thanks for you reply. America is indeed the most powerful nation on the planet. And I’m sure it will continue for some time.

    When you speak of ‘playing by the rules’ I imagine you are referring to the trade balance; to the economic piracy that goes on in some of these asian countries; to economic spying; and to other factors like unfair labour practices?

    When I speak of the the ‘first’ I mean it in the sense of the ‘former’. The former being the 1938 olympics while the ‘latter’ refers to the 2012 olympics. I don’t mean it in the sense of the ‘first’ olympics ever held. Perhaps I should have been clearer with my usage.

    Look forward to hearing from you again.

    Giovanni

  3. ziddi said,

    Thanks for your comment in my blog…Ill be sure to blogroll you, I didnt know you lived in BC…we’re practically neighbors 🙂

    Anyway, yes I am referring to China’s deliberate devaluation of its currency to make its exports more appealing. I just read the other day that China’s ferocious economic growth is bringing with it a whole set of different problems. For instance, something like 7 out of the world’s 10 most polluted cities are in China, there are traffic bottlenecks everywhere, the rural sector is suffering without any state health care, etc etc. I don’t think they can sustain their growth for too long.. these factors will take its toll.

  4. secretlives said,

    They will indeed take its toll. And this is one of the reasons why China may flex its new found muscles so much that a war may occur between them and the West. Russia thinks it has found a new ally in China; in fact, China may become its nemesis.

    Giovanni


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